In 1994, I had just graduated from high school. We had a computer lab, but none of the machines were connected to the Internet. I used my time on the machines to type papers and do layouts for the school’s printed newspaper.
One day, I visited one of my cousins at his apartment and he introduced me to America Online. Before I knew it, I was chatting with a girl in Kansas and exchanging stories about the differences in our environments (I was in Ohio).
My mind was blown, and I knew that I had to get a computer and get online. Six months later, I did. I purchased a Toshiba T2110 486 DX4-75 Laptop and got online with one of AOL’s free hours floppy disks.
From that day forward, in some way shape or form…I was online.
Looking back now, I’m blown away by how early this was.
According to some estimates, in 1994, there were just 10,000 websites and two million computers connected to the Internet. Amazon, Yahoo! and what would become Netscape were just getting started and Microsoft’s Internet Explorer would not launch for another year.
Adam Curry, from the NoAgenda Podcast and former MTV VJ asked MTV if they had a problem with him registering MTV.com, and they didn’t care. Why? Because they had the AOL Keyword “MTV”. It seemed that very few people could see the impact that the Internet would have.
I remember telling anyone who would listen how important the Internet would become, and almost no one listened. Especially those over 50 years old who had the accumulated wealth to make meaningful investments into Internet related technology.
This general sentiment is captured perfectly by the famous economist Paul Krugman in 1998 when he said:
“By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”
Krugman has another prediction for us today related to Bitcoin: Discussing the recent $1 trillion drop in the “crypto” market cap, Krugman says:
“Who is being hurt by this crash, and what might it do to the economy? Well, I’m seeing uncomfortable parallels with the subprime crisis of the 2000s.”
I believe that Krugman is wrong now, as he was in 1998. I believe that Bitcoin is having it’s 1994 moment when it will become mainstream as the Internet did.
For those too young or who were not immersed in the Internet of 1994, a brief history lesson is in order.
Usenet was an early online discussion platform that predates the modern Internet. Around 1993 Internet service providers began offering Usenet access to their users, followed in 1994 by America Online. Prior to this, each September brought a surge in new users as college students received access. Most of them came and then left, and therefore the average number of Usenet users remained about the same post September and the culture of the platform remained intact.
The period after 1993 – 1994 is called Eternal September, or the September that never ended. The flood of new users from the ISP’s overwhelmed Usenet, and it was changed forever.
For more about Eternal September: Know Your Meme
I believe Bitcoin is beginning it’s Eternal September right now. It’s becoming mainstream and accessible with the help of lightning network and more recently with Nostr plus lightning zaps.
In September 2017 I rediscovered Bitcoin. I say rediscovered because I first read about in 2013 and completely dismissed it. When the 2017 bull run saw the price almost reach $20,000, I started paying attention.
I got into mining Bitcoin and learned how to run machines and be rewarded with Satoshis. Eventually, through a lot of trial and error, I learned how to find underutilized or abandoned energy sources to mine Bitcoin at larger scale.
From 2017 to 2020, I talked about Bitcoin non-stop to anyone who would listen. Most people I encountered in the physical world didn’t know what Bitcoin was, and certainly didn’t know about mining. In 2021 this began to change and from 2022 forward, I seldom meet anyone who hasn’t at least heard of Bitcoin and has a general idea of what it is.
In 1994 Amazon was selling books and in 2023 they sell everything. They were able to achieve this by building their business on top of the TCP/IP open protocol, leveraging the Internet to become the world’s storefront.
The Bitcoin network is also an open protocol that anyone can build products on top of. The major difference, and what I believe is often missed, is that you cannot really own a piece of TCP/IP, but you can own a part of the Bitcoin network either by holding the asset or by mining Bitcoin.
In the 1800s America was busy expanding west and the railroad barons were busy capturing the opportunity of owning the transportation infrastructure that all future commerce would be built on. They made huge financial investments and were rewarded handsomely for owning a piece of the network through which all value flowed.
Bitcoin is also a network that value flows through, however instead of merely being the container that transports value, it is also the value itself. And unlike the railroads which took days or weeks to transport value across space and time, Bitcoin and Lightning can instantly message value to anyone in the world at the speed of light. Add Nostr for a social and communication layer, and you have a truly decentralized, free and open system to communicate and exchange value without trusted third parties. This system is available to anyone with a basic Internet connection and does not require the approval or protection of any government or business.
In 1440, Gutenberg’s printing press removed the centralized control of information that the Catholic Church held over the rest of humanity; ushering in a quantum leap in technological and philosophical advancement. Information could be easily copied and became increasingly assessable to the masses.
Quantum leaps are not always recognized at the time, but in hindsight are obvious. Krugman did not see a quantum leap in the Internet printing press, but it is obvious now.
Many are missing the quantum leap of stateless self sovereign money that cannot be controlled or censored by any government or corporation, backed by a voluntary system of transaction validation by mining that can harness and put to use any underutilized or idle energy source.
In hindsight, the Bitcoin and Nostr protocol quantum leap will be as obvious as the printing press, railroad and Internet are today.
If you were around, what did you think about the Internet in 1994? What do you think about Bitcoin today? I was alive and a young adult when the Internet had its Eternal September and I still grossly underestimated the impact of mass adoption. I suspect that I am grossly underestimating the impact that Bitcoin and Nostr mass adoption will have as well. How many people hold Bitcoin today? How many people are on Nostr?